'Second Wave' of H1N1 May Lead to Hospital Bed Shortage in 15 States

A new report from the Trust for America's Health (TFAH) asserts that hospitals in 15 states may run out of beds and hospitals in 12 more states may reach or exceed 75 percent bed capacity if 35 percent of Americans become ill from H1N1 in the coming weeks, AHA News reports. Based on the CDC's FluSurge computer model, the report assumes the virus' second wave would be relatively mild and last approximately eight weeks. Estimating that the number of admitted flu cases could range from a high of 168,025 in California to a low of 2,485 in Wyoming, the report suggests that Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia and Washington would be at or exceed hospital bed capacity if 35 percent of Americans are sickened by the H1N1 virus. Meanwhile, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Utah and Wisconsin would be at 75 percent to 99 percent of their hospital bed capacity. Noting concerns such as low seasonal flu vaccinations that will require a "major upsurge" in vaccinations for H1N1 to protect the population, as well as state and community budget cuts and layoffs that are "hampering" preparedness efforts, the report calls for the refinement of plans for rapid distribution and administration of vaccines; special efforts to reach out to young adults, minorities and other groups about the importance of vaccination; and the establishment of an "emergency health benefit" to care for the uninsured and underinsured during the H1N1 outbreak. In addition, the report suggests that public and private insurers waive co-payments for H1N1 vaccines and out-of-network care for H1N1-related illness, among other recommendations. The report also calls for hospitals, health care providers and public health providers to improve efforts to recruit trained staff for "times of emergency" and for hospitals and providers to develop "clear and practiced" plans to respond to emergencies or an influx of patients. Specifically, that planning should include how to provide continued care for daily emergencies and chronic care during emergencies, as well as how to separate infectious patients from other patients in emergency departments and other departments. Moreover, the report calls for a "reliable funding stream" to support public health preparedness, as well as the modernization of U.S. disease surveillance systems and public health infrastructure (AHA News Now, 10/1/09; Steenhuysen, Reuters, 10/1/09; Reichard, CQ HealthBeat, 10/1/09 [subscription required]; Smith, MedPage Today, 10/1/09; TFAH report, October 2009; TFAH release, 10/1/09).

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