State Variation in Medicaid and CHIP Unwinding for Children and Adults
As of November 2023
An analysis of available data shows Medicaid disenrollments as a result of pandemic-era coverage protections ending surpassed original projections.
The Issue
States have varied in how they've conducted eligibility redeterminations for Medicaid enrollees, but data show some states are disenrolling more individuals than originally projected.
Key Findings (as of November 2023)
- Eight states surpassed their total projected Medicaid disenrollments within the first eight months of resuming Medicaid eligibility determinations after the program’s continuous coverage requirement ended last year.
- Twelve states surpassed total projected disenrollments for children.
- States that publicized their intention to complete the unwinding in less than 12 months, states that obtained few federal waivers to streamline renewals, and states that prioritized the renewal of those likely to be ineligible all had notably higher overall net disenrollment rates relative to other states, according to the analyssis.
Conclusion
This analysis shows that certain states appear to have already disenrolled more people from Medicaid than projected, despite eligibility redeterminations continuing through 2024.
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